The agreement signed in Washington between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, under the mediation of US President Donald Trump, heralds a new process in the South Caucasus. With this text, an attempt has been made to bring a comprehensive political settlement to the problems that have become chronic between the parties since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and to the climate of mutual distrust. The agreement covers not only making the ceasefire permanent, but also the mutual confirmation of the recognition of sovereignty, the reestablishment of diplomatic relations, and the revival of economic and commercial links. In this respect, it constitutes an arrangement that opens diplomatic channels long closed between the parties and offers a "structural" framework for regional peace.
The Zangezur Corridor
The most striking part of the text, however, is the arrangement on the Zangezur Corridor, named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). Under this arrangement, a direct transport line will be established between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan; the line will be guaranteed to remain legally under Armenia's sovereignty, but the right to operate and develop it will be transferred to a US-based consortium for 99 years. Thus, while the agreement institutionalizes the parties' normalization process on the one hand, it paves the way, on the other, for the United States to become one of the permanent elements of the regional order.
This new framework appears to have created a historic opportunity for the pursuit of peace and stability in the South Caucasus. At the same time, all eyes have turned to Iran, which has opposed the Zangezur Corridor at the highest level from the very beginning of the process, and the reactions to come from Iran have become a matter of curiosity.
Iran's Reaction
Following the 12-day conflict, a tendency toward a softer policy can be observed in Iran in both domestic and foreign policy. Two different directions stand out in Iran's approach to the agreement, both in official statements and in debates in the Persian-language press. On the official level, Tehran has announced that it supports, in principle, the establishment of a lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has emphasized that an agreement reached on the basis of respect for the parties' sovereignty could produce positive results for regional stability. At the same time, Iran's official discourse has avoided entirely confrontational language; it has stated that it is not opposed in principle to "the opening of routes" and that, on the contrary, the diversification of regional trade and transport lines could be beneficial. However, it has also been voiced that this opening must take place within the framework of the full sovereignty of the countries concerned and without the tutelage of external actors. This approach was also confirmed during President Pezeshkian's visit to Yerevan on August 19, 2025; Pezeshkian reiterated his support for Armenia's sovereignty and emphasized that they oppose the route being shaped under the tutelage of external actors.
A Project to Strangle Tehran?
The Iranian media and security circles have met the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity arrangement in particular with harsh criticism. Conservative newspapers described the transfer of a route on Armenian territory to a US-based consortium for 99 years as "the leasing of sovereignty" and pointed out that this was a strategy aimed at weakening Iran's regional position. These commentaries emphasized that the permanent establishment of the United States in the South Caucasus via the Zangezur Corridor would carry NATO's influence all the way to Iran's northern border. Thus, TRIPP has been assessed not merely as an economic transit arrangement but also as an instrument of geopolitical encirclement.
Reformist circles, for their part, have produced a more balanced discourse, but have converged on a similar line in their basic concerns. Commentaries published on these platforms have adopted a cautious but cautionary tone. It has been argued that TRIPP could erode Armenia's sovereignty and push Iran's transit role in the northwest to a secondary position. It has also been stated that, with this arrangement, Iran's only land route opening to Eurasia via Armenia could lose its strategic importance. Some commentaries have assessed that the establishment by the United States of a long-term economic and security presence in the region could weaken Iran's coordination with Russia and strengthen the Türkiye-Azerbaijan axis. For these reasons, TRIPP has mostly been interpreted in the Iranian press as "a project to geographically strangle Tehran."
What Changes in the South Caucasus?
In conclusion, Iran's reaction has a dual framework: support for peace in diplomatic language, and concern about encirclement in strategic reading. The implementation of TRIPP means not only an economic loss for Iran but also a geopolitical threat. It can therefore be anticipated that, in the period ahead, Tehran will try to accelerate alternative transit routes, deepen bilateral cooperation with Armenia, and strengthen coordination with Russia. Iran's ambivalence in its view of this agreement is the most concrete indicator of the tension between the discourse of peace in the region and geopolitical realities.
The agreement claims to be an important turning point for peace in the South Caucasus. Thanks to its potential to reduce hostility between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the text strengthens expectations of stability on Iran's northwestern borders. In addition, the reopening of regional trade and transport networks offers Tehran new opportunities to bring its own infrastructure projects to the fore. Although Iran's geopolitical concerns will not disappear entirely, it is possible for it to gain indirect benefits in areas such as the progress of the peace process, the reduction of security risks, and the acceleration of regional economic integration.
This article was first published in Yeni Şafak on August 28, 2025.