Pashinyan's Tough Test
- Oral Toğa
- Jun 13, 2024
- 4 min read
Pashinyan must find a way to normalize relations with Turkey by convincing domestic politics and public opinion. Turkey is the only regional actor that can understand and positively respond to Pashinyan's intentions. Pashinyan is aware that the first condition for this is peace with Azerbaijan.
Illustration: Cemile Ağaç Yıldırım.
Tensions rose again in the Armenian parliament as Azerbaijan demanded four villages under Armenian occupation. There were heated debates between members of the main opposition Armenian Alliance and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The message Pashinyan, who is trying to take a pro-peace stance, is very clear: “Let's establish an Armenia within internationally recognized borders and develop this Armenia.”
"AZERBAIJAN'S REALTOR" ACCUSATION
However, this does not seem to be so easy. While Pashinyan and his team want to stay within internationally recognized borders, the opposition openly accuses Pashinyan of treason. During a parliamentary session where the return of the villages was discussed, Levon Kocharyan from the Armenian Alliance accused Pashinyan of being "Azerbaijan's realtor." Pashinyan, on the other hand, responded to Kocharyan's accusation by showing a map of Armenia made of metal, which he frequently displays, and said, "I am the prime minister of Armenia within these borders."
Pashinyan's greatest strength is the support of the people behind him. Although Pashinyan's Civil Contract Party lost the Second Karabakh War, it received 53.95% of the votes in the elections, winning 71 out of 107 seats in the parliament. Although Pashinyan, who had 70% public support in 2018, experienced a significant loss of votes, this rate provided Pashinyan and his team with considerable maneuvering space. However, the state of dependence on Russia, especially in almost every area in Armenia, besides the opposition in the country, is an obstacle to producing independent policies.
OPPOSITION FRONT
The elections held after the Karabakh War redesigned politics and rhetoric in Armenia. New alliances were formed between parties after the war. Today, there are two major alliances in the parliament against the ruling Civil Contract party: the Armenian Alliance and the I Have Honor Alliance. Both alliances, as their names suggest, claim to show a "national stance" against Pashinyan's "non-national" stance. The main component of the Armenian Alliance, led by former President Robert Kocharyan, who is close to Russia, is the Dashnak party. Known for its terrorist activities, especially in the late Ottoman period, the Dashnak party is also very active in Iran. The party, which has significant support among Iranian Armenians, has considerable control over the Armenian community.
The other member of the Armenian Alliance is the Armenian Renaissance party, led by Vahe Hakobyan. Hakobyan is a strong figure in the Syunik province, which is at the center of the Zangezur Corridor discussions. Having served as the governor of this province in the past, Hakobyan has strong commercial connections, including the largest mining company in Armenia. The Armenian parliament's 29 seats belong to this alliance. In other words, they are the main opposition.
The other opposition group, the I Have Honor Alliance, has 6 seats. This alliance was also formed after the Karabakh War. The alliance is currently led by former Prime Minister Serj Sargsyan, who was forced to resign in 2018 due to protests led by Pashinyan. The main components of the alliance were the Republican Party and the Homeland Party. However, the Homeland Party later left the alliance.
EFFORTS TO DIVERSIFY ACTORS
Pashinyan aims to establish healthy neighborly relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, turn Armenia into a "Peace Hub," making it a crossroads for transportation networks, and develop the country. When they came to power in 2018, increasing the population in Armenia was also among the party's goals. In summary, they have a development-oriented approach. Therefore, Pashinyan wants to build a more liberal system and see actors like the EU and the USA in his country alongside regional actors. However, this is currently difficult. The warnings from Russia and Iran, as well as the continued tension on the Azerbaijan border, also tie Pashinyan's hands.
On the other hand, Armenia's dependence on Russia is at its peak. Besides the complete integration of the military and intelligence structures with Russia, there are also economic dependencies. Armenian oligarchs of Russian origin, like Samvel Karapetyan, have significant influence within Armenia. Last year, Karapetyan announced a $150 million investment in two thermal power plants in Armenia. The renewal of the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant is also being undertaken by Russia. In dozens of similar areas, Armenia is dependent on Russia. Additionally, Armenia is a significant actor in bypassing the sanctions imposed on Russia.
NEED FOR TURKEY
Nikol Pashinyan is trying to chart a course for himself among all these actors. Ultimately, Pashinyan's most fundamental strategic goal is to reduce his country's dependence. In this context, his priority is to end the conflict and create peace conditions. By diversifying the actors, he wants to establish and advance a balance policy. However, the current internal and external balances pose significant obstacles to Pashinyan. To reach the desired commercial capacity and take integration with EU countries to a higher level, Pashinyan must find a way to normalize relations with Turkey by convincing domestic politics and public opinion. Turkey is the only regional actor that can understand and positively respond to Pashinyan's intentions. Pashinyan is aware that the first condition for this is peace with Azerbaijan.
This article was first published in Yeni Şafak newspaper on 25.03.2024.
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