Iran has been grappling with a series of increasingly severe crises in recent years. None is independent of the others, and each is complex and difficult to explain. The nuclear negotiations, which have advanced unevenly for years, are a major issue in their own right. Meanwhile, embargoes and economic pressure have made themselves felt more acutely across every layer of society. The mutual distrust among international actors created by the embargoes and the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement has also permeated domestic policymaking.
As prices have risen astronomically within a few years and purchasing power has weakened daily, groups from different professions and social strata have begun protesting. Protests against fuel-price increases and teachers’ demonstrations of varying sizes, particularly in Isfahan throughout 2020, have continued at different intensities. Last year’s water-crisis protests, especially in Khuzestan, also made water governance a major issue confronting Ebrahim Raisi’s government.
Since early May, demonstrations have spread through various cities following the government’s decision to cut food subsidies. At least five people have died in security forces’ interventions. Amid these events, a ten-story building collapsed in Khuzestan, killing more than forty people and returning negligence and corruption to the public agenda.
Iran now faces what might be described as a convergence of all these problems. This time, however, there is no single mass demonstration around a specific issue. With already dissatisfied professional groups taking to the streets alongside the developments above, the country has entered a multilayered, dispersed cycle of mass protest. People from labor unions, pensioners, bazaar traders, teachers, and even mobile-phone retailers are seeking their rights in the streets. On June 15, for example, mobile-phone shop owners marched in Najafabad, Isfahan, saying unstable monetary policy and the toman’s decline against the dollar had left them in difficulty and forced them to close. Similar protests occurred in Arak, Kazerun, and Minab. Despite harsh government and law-enforcement measures, teachers have likewise taken to the streets in many places to demand employment rights and better pay.
The absence of a single unified mass, and the diversity of demands despite similar underlying causes, pose serious challenges to the government. Security forces have responded to these widespread, multifaceted protests with harsh measures and numerous arrests. The UN human rights office issued a report expressing concern about potential rights violations.
Low turnout in the latest presidential election can be explained by people’s loss of faith that elections can change anything. The Raisi government’s failure to fulfill promises to withstand sanctions and improve living conditions, the lack of progress on the nuclear agreement, the demoralizing effects of assassinations and events such as the Abadan building collapse, and economic deadlock all deepen this despair and drive people into the streets. The same UN report states: “In the absence of meaningful channels for participation in Iran, peaceful protests are the only way for individuals and groups to express themselves.”
The current situation suggests that demonstrations will continue, though the intensity of confrontation is difficult to predict. If the establishment views them through the lens of recent events exposing security vulnerabilities, it may interpret them all as the work of agents of influence, creating obstacles to meeting public demands. Such an approach to protests where anti-system slogans are already being heard in some places would clearly deepen the existing difficulties.
This article was first published by the Center for Iranian Studies (İRAM) on June 22, 2022.
Link: https://www.iramcenter.org/iranda-son-gunlerde-yasanan-protestolar-763