The Decline of Human Capital in Iran and Ongoing Debates
- Oral Toğa
- Dec 23, 2023
- 5 min read
Although overshadowed by issues such as the war in Ukraine, the Karabakh issue, attacks on military bases, and the agreement with Saudi Arabia, the increasing emigration of Iran's young and educated population has been a topic of discussion in Iran for some time. In a meeting last month, Behram Salavati, director of the Iran Migration Observatory, warned that Iran could face human capital difficulties in the future. He also noted that Iran could soon face a crisis due to a shortage of skilled workers. Salavati stated that there is a lack of a foundation for maintaining human resources within the country, and while the migration of skilled personnel has increased, Iran is unable to attract skilled workers from other countries. In addition, Salavati mentioned that the desire to migrate among university students and graduates has increased, citing the disappointments experienced by students for various reasons and the deterioration of the education system as threats to the future of the country's human capital. In addition, Salavati noted that students see education abroad as an opportunity to migrate, often with the intention of staying for a longer period. Claims have been made that families are sending their children ahead with the intention of eventually bringing the whole family over, thus using education as a tool for mass migration and encouraging their children in this direction.
Salavati's concerns have been discussed in various circles in Iran for some time. Particularly in the wake of the Mahsa Amini protests, the issue of Iranians going abroad and not returning has been a hot topic in the country for the past three months. Despite the amnesty law approved by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the debate continues. Mohammad Saleh Jokar, chairman of the Interior Commission of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, argued in an interview that the amnesty is an incentive to return home, especially for the youth, and claimed that the government's initiative has thwarted enemies' attempts to polarize the country through the media. However, it is estimated that more than four million Iranians now live abroad, and the loss of skilled people in the country is increasing daily. This is leading to a significant brain drain and erosion of human capital. According to a study titled "Migration and Brain Drain in Iran," prepared in April 2020 as part of the Stanford Iran 2040 Project, the number of active Iranian academics in the diaspora increased tenfold from 2000 to the date of the study. In addition, there are approximately 110,000 Iranian-origin academics currently working in universities and research centers. In addition, the number of Iranian-born students enrolled in foreign universities has exceeded 130,000. Considering not only these students and academics, but also engineers, artists, athletes, and others who have left Iran, the gravity of the situation becomes clear. All these data support Salavati's claims about the relationship between the education system and people's perspectives on education and migration.
Meetings of intellectuals and elites have been organized in different parts of the country, where political elites and decision-makers have made successive statements. For example, in a meeting with elites in Yazd, Mohammad Reza Sabaghian, a member of parliament from Yazd, claimed that it is necessary to benefit from the views of elites in various fields for a diverse and sustainable development of the country and this could prevent brain drain. At a similar meeting in Zanjan, Zanjan Governor Mohsen Afsharchi made a similar statement, acknowledging the problems in the country but stressing the need to recognize the progress made despite the presence of narrow-minded people. Afsharchi also attributed the attention Iranian elites receive from other countries to positive developments within Iran. Finally, he stressed the need to support and appreciate elites who want to stay and build the country.
In part of his speech, Afsharchi stated that the term "brain drain" is not appropriate. A similar stance can be found in an article published in Hamshahri newspaper, which questions the concept of "elite". The article suggests that the departure of these elites abroad is not necessarily bad, arguing that the "big fish needs a big sea" and that young people going abroad for education should not be viewed negatively. The same article asserts that although Iran is lagging behind Europe and America, young people who leave the country for education and science should return because they owe a debt to their homeland, as their status as doctors, engineers, and experts was achieved with the help of state-provided opportunities.
The issue of family members of government officials working abroad has also sparked debate. Mohammad Saleh Jokar, chairman of the Interior Commission of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, has proposed a radical solution by advocating restrictions on the foreign travel of the families of government officials. In an interview with Hemshahri, Jokar argued that government officials should set an example and maintain consistency between words and actions. He suggested that a statistic should be compiled in the Assembly on how many MPs have children abroad, explaining that this issue negatively affects the reputation of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The events of the last quarter of 2022, in particular, appear to have further increased the number of emigrants leaving the country and intensified these debates. The extent of this situation will become clearer with the reports to be published in 2023. However, looking at the situation from Turkey's perspective, the impact of the Amini issue can also be seen in the data of the Directorate General of Migration Management. According to data published on March 16, 2023, 5,849 irregular Iranian migrants were apprehended in 2022. Since Turkey does not require visas from Iranians, unlike many other nationalities, Iranians do not need to enter Turkey illegally. The dramatic increase in these numbers suggests, although it's a generalization, that some of these refugees left Iran in a hurry or didn't have the means to obtain a passport. The peak in the number of irregular Iranian migrants apprehended in 2019, which coincided with intense protests, suggests that the increase in protests is directly proportional to the increase in the number of irregular Iranian migrants in the country. Moreover, prior to the war in Ukraine, the number of Iranians with long-term or short-term residence permits was higher compared to many foreign nationals. Although this has changed with the influx of people from Russia and Ukraine, Iranian students still rank second after Azerbaijani students in terms of the number of foreign students in Turkey with student residence permits. This data, although not directly provable, supports Salavati's claim that Iranian students see education as a way out of the country.
The gradual increase in brain drain and the rising number of Iranians leaving the country since the era of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has reached a peak in recent years. Iranian elites and policymakers recognize that this problem could lead to a human capital crisis in the medium and long term and are seeking measures to address it. At a time when urbanization and related socioeconomic problems have escalated, economic difficulties and social events are at their peak, and various problems related to the climate crisis are exacerbating existing problems, such a rapid erosion of human capital will further complicate Iran's efforts to overcome its current problems. Whether Iranians who have moved abroad, integrated into certain social circles, and established a life will have the desire to return to their country remains a question. It is plausible to assume that, contrary to the expectations of the Iranian political elite, these segments, having established a new life abroad, have a high probability of engaging in activities against the regime.
This article was first published in Turkish on 23.03.2022 by the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM).
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