My assessment of Raisi’s death for Haber 7:
A funeral was held in Tehran yesterday for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and the six others who died when their helicopter crashed. Tens of thousands of Iranians filled the capital’s streets. Among the questions being asked after Raisi’s death is: “An accident or sabotage?” Haber7 reporter Yavuz Selvi spoke to Oral Toğa, a researcher at the Center for Iranian Studies. Toğa said the incident could have resulted from internal conflict in Iran.
“EVEN IF IT WAS SABOTAGE, IT WILL NOT BE ACKNOWLEDGED”
Center for Iranian Studies (İRAM) researcher Oral Toğa said:
More people have suggested sabotage, but when we consider Iran’s aviation history and technological capabilities, we cannot rule out an accident. Former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif even made a statement to the effect that US sanctions also bore responsibility for the crash. Yet, given the current dynamics, sabotage cannot be ruled out either. The chief of the general staff said a commission had been established and an investigation would be conducted. Even if it was sabotage, however, I do not think it will be acknowledged or announced. If something like that happened, it would mean your entire security apparatus had been penetrated and your president eliminated. You would then have to take action.
“RAISI WAS THE STRONGEST CANDIDATE TO SUCCEED KHAMENEI”
Raisi was gradually brought to prominence after 2017. In 2021, extensive electoral engineering saw all his rivals vetoed, leaving him virtually the sole candidate and allowing him to be elected president. There were assessments that he could become Supreme Leader after Khamenei. His death, however, has disrupted those internal balances. Iran’s minister of roads and urban development even made a statement along the lines of: “Some wanted him to serve only one term. I hope they are all at peace now.” That exposes the conflicts within the system. We may see more such statements in the coming days. Who was the other group? Alongside Raisi, Supreme Leader Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei was mentioned as another candidate. But Raisi was the leading contender.
We have recently seen numerous security vulnerabilities in Iran. Some actors are able to exploit these vulnerabilities inside Iran. The rhetoric of Iran’s Islamic Revolution has remained consistent in its regional policy, and foreign policy is largely built on that rhetoric. Iran has experienced major events before, but its foreign policy has always maintained a degree of consistency. I do not think Iran will make a 180-degree policy reversal.
