An influential group led predominantly by figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is laying the groundwork for a “revolutionary” figure to succeed Khamenei. Considerable effort is therefore being made to place “revolutionary” figures at the head of the legislative, executive, and judicial branches. Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi has increasingly been discussed for years as a candidate to become the next Supreme Leader.
Illustration: Cemile Ağaç Yıldırım.
Iran will hold elections for the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts on March 1. The former is the country’s legislative parliament; the latter is the important body that determines who will hold the office of Supreme Leader, the country’s highest authority. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has occupied that position for 35 years. Unlike parliamentary elections, elections to the Assembly of Experts take place every eight years. This election is regarded as one of the most strategically important in the Islamic Republic’s history. Although it is not discussed openly in Iran, Khamenei is 85, and preparations for the period after him, along with struggles among political elites, began long ago. The election of the Assembly of Experts that will choose the next Leader therefore has particular importance.
ELECTORAL ENGINEERING
In all Iranian elections—parliamentary, presidential, or for the Assembly of Experts—candidates apply to the Guardian Council. They become eligible to stand if the council approves their suitability. Since the 2020 parliamentary elections, however, the Guardian Council has engaged in conspicuous electoral engineering. Having shaped parliament in 2020 and the presidency in 2021 through this overt practice, it has adopted a similar approach this time, vetoing prominent candidates particularly from the reformist camp.
Applicants included important reformist figures such as former President Hassan Rouhani, but almost all were vetoed. In South Khorasan province, the council initially made incumbent President Ebrahim Raisi the sole candidate without naming an opponent; a second candidate was approved after controversy arose. This effectively demonstrates that, despite all objections, the council is again engaging in electoral engineering.
EFFORTS TO INSTALL A “REVOLUTIONARY” FIGURE
An influential group led predominantly by figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is laying the groundwork for a “revolutionary” figure to succeed Khamenei. Considerable effort is therefore being made to place “revolutionary” figures at the head of the legislative, executive, and judicial branches. Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, who emerged from the judiciary and played a significant role in the execution of thousands in 1988, has increasingly been discussed for years as a candidate to become the next Supreme Leader. Having first headed the judiciary and then become president, Raisi is now certain to enter the Assembly of Experts as a result of the council’s decision.
The council followed a similar course in the 2020 parliamentary and 2021 presidential elections, bringing first the legislature and then the executive onto a “revolutionary” line. Figures such as former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were vetoed. Just before the electoral race, then-Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, widely expected to run, was sidelined by a leaked audio recording before he could announce his candidacy. All potentially strong opponents were thus blocked, leaving Raisi as the only powerful candidate.
LOW ELECTORAL TURNOUT
Following the vetoes in the 2020 parliamentary election, turnout fell to 42.5 percent, the lowest in the Islamic Republic’s history. In Tehran, it dropped to 26 percent. Because voters were predominantly system-supporting conservatives, reformists won only 17 of the 290 seats. This made the Rouhani government’s final months difficult. Turnout remained low in the election a year later, at 48.8 percent.
For the past year, turnout has been discussed at the highest levels in Iran. The record participation in Türkiye’s latest elections also received frequent coverage in Iranian media during this period. Such electoral engineering, however, has created deep public despair. Turnout in the last two elections bears this out. Yet neither that situation nor the resulting questions of legitimacy appear to be priorities for the establishment. Despite a year of calls to “vote,” participation seems likely to remain at similar levels this time. This despair and the economic difficulties not only make Iran more vulnerable but also lay the groundwork for social unrest.
OBSTACLES IN RAISI’S PATH ARE BEING REMOVED ONE BY ONE
In short, despite all resistance and criticism, every obstacle to Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi becoming the next Supreme Leader is being removed one by one. Unless something goes wrong, he will become the Islamic Revolution’s third Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei. The important point is that the structure that brought him to power will gain complete control over the country by capturing its highest office, that of Supreme Leader. That structure is the IRGC. Since Raisi’s election as president, figures with IRGC backgrounds have effectively taken over the senior bureaucracy. Numerous senior officials and governors, including Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, have been drawn from the corps. For a structure already possessing immense economic and military power, capturing the highest office would also mean gaining complete political control...
This article was first published in Yeni Şafak on February 27, 2024.
Link: https://www.yenisafak.com/dusunce-gunlugu/iranda-hamaney-sonrasi-doneme-hazirlik-4604846