The Death of Raisi and the Subsequent Events
- Oral Toğa
- Jun 13, 2024
- 3 min read
How Did the Accident Happen?
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the accompanying state officials met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and other officials on May 19, 2024, for the inauguration of the Red Castle and Khudaferin dams located at the Azerbaijan-Iran border. Unlike recent events, the discussions took place in a very warm atmosphere, with friendly messages exchanged between the parties. After the meeting and the inauguration, President Raisi and his delegation left the area in three different helicopters. Shortly after, it was reported that the helicopter carrying Raisi had disappeared and had to make an emergency landing. In the following hours, contradictory information and news were disseminated. Finally, it was confirmed that the helicopter, which had crashed in East Azerbaijan, carried President Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, East Azerbaijan Governor Malek Rahmati, and Tabriz Friday Imam Seyyed Mohammad Ali Al-e-Hashem. Due to the severe weather conditions and the uncertainty about the exact location of the crash, there were significant difficulties in reaching the wreckage. The contradictory information from Iranian media and authorities caused great confusion. Several media outlets quickly deleted their posts on X (Twitter), and these news reports were later denied. In summary, there was great chaos throughout the process, hindering the flow of reliable information. Meanwhile, the public in Iran was invited to pray in squares and shrines.
The Events During the Night
With the further drop in temperatures and the onset of night, the situation became more critical. Even if survivors had been found, it would have been difficult to survive the current weather conditions. Due to the race against time, Iranian authorities requested a night-vision search and rescue helicopter from Turkey. Because the helicopter could not take off due to weather conditions, the Turkish authorities offered to conduct the search and detection with an Akıncı drone. After Iran accepted the offer, an Akıncı drone reached the crash site about an hour after its departure, around 23:30 Turkish time, and began searching for the wreckage. Within two hours, the Akıncı scanned a large area and located the helicopter around 02:30 through visual contact, sharing the coordinates of the wreckage with Iranian authorities. The flight lasted more than seven hours in total, and the Akıncı returned to Turkish airspace at 06:45. Just before dawn, teams advancing towards the position provided by the Akıncı encountered the helicopter wreckage and found no survivors.
Subsequent Events
Following the death of President Raisi and Foreign Minister Abdollahian, according to Article 131 of the Constitution, the presidency was assumed by First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, and the foreign ministry was temporarily taken over by Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani. Iran entered a new election process. In the coming days, this election process will dominate the agenda in Iran. Raisi was a very important figure for Iranian domestic politics. He was considered the strongest candidate to succeed Ali Khamenei as the next Supreme Leader. Many electoral manipulations were carried out to enable him to reach this position, and he gained experience within the state for years. Today, all these investments were rendered futile by this accident. In other words, this death will directly affect the internal dynamics and relationships among elites in Iran. It is currently difficult to make precise predictions. However, in the coming days, we may see old figures like Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf taking action to come back to the forefront, or we may see lesser-known names like Mohammad Mokhber surprisingly emerging. At this point, it is crucial to see whether Supreme Leader Khamenei will intervene politically, and if so, which side he will support.
This article was published on 21.05.2024 by the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM).
Comments