Can Biden Fix Things Up With Iran?

The 59th presidential election in the U.S. is over, and on January 20, President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will take the oath of office at Capitol Hill. On the other hand, it is not sure yet that ex-President Trump, who does not accept the election results, will attend the inauguration. While this whole process is in progress by itself, there are numerous analyses worldwide about the possible political roadmap that Biden and his team will follow, and the U.S. – Iran relations are at the center of these analyses. It is not a secret that Biden seeks a path to revive or renew the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCAP) with Iran for its nuclear endeavor. Throughout and after the electoral process, ex-President Trump and the Netanyahu government opposed this issue by making strong opposition, while E.U. leaders supported Biden's and his team's statements. Since the beginning of the electoral campaign, Biden and his team members have sent clear and reassuring messages to U.S.'s European allies and Iran. Thus, the parties have become clear.

In regard to Iran's internal politics, the situation is very complicated. There are also two parties in Iran. While the reformists support the JCAP, which is the most outstanding achievement during their government, the conservatives approach it with suspicion. They interpret this whole process as an attempt by "the enemy U.S." to infiltrate the country. Although during the U.S. electoral process, Iranian authorities had said that the U.S. election does not affect their political position, the facts speak for themselves. Iran has an election on June 18, and with Trump's resiling from the JCAP and putting the sanctions into action, the Reformists have lost power and credibility. Thus, Biden's call for dialogue may be a chance for the reformists to compensate for these losses.

Throughout 2020, Iran was faced with three major devastating and humiliating attacks: the assassination of Soleimani, the sabotage of Natanz, and the assassination of Fakhrizadeh. Although some -mostly Israeli columnists- blame the balances of Iran's domestic politics, almost everyone agrees that the Fakhrizadeh assassination was carried out by those who do not want Iran and the U.S. to reconcile. However, there is controversy about who the perpetrator is. Another fact is that this assassination has also strengthened the conservatives' hand, who is the opponent to JCAP, within Iran. The Conservative-majority parliament passed the "Strategic Action Law to Lift Sanctions and Protect the Interests of the Iranian People" on December 1, despite all the government's objections. This is also another clear message to the current Iranian government, the new U.S. government, and the EU leaders who support the JCAP. Nevertheless, Biden, EU leaders, and Rohani's government seem determined to negotiate. But why? What is the deal behind all of these endeavors?

Above all, Biden and his team are not a big fan of Iran. Occasionally they criticize Iranian authorities regarding human rights violations such as arbitrary arrests or executions, their political position, etc. But they also defend that this agreement is essential for Iran's integration into the global economic and political system. Their opinion is that the integrity of the global system will prevent conflicts. That is also why they oppose Brexit. According to Biden's team, a total war with Iran and isolating the whole country from the system in this way not only forces Iran to pursue more aggressive policies but also strengthens China's hand and puts America's European allies, who see great economic opportunities in Iran market, in a difficult position. Instead of a total war, they prefer to choose diplomatic channels.

On the other hand, the names such as Anthony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, who are in Biden's team today, are known from Obama's administration. These two names were the key figures in the JCAP process. And today, while Anthony Blinken holds Secretary of State's position, Sullivan is National Security Advisor in Biden's administration. That is another hint about how the U.S. policy towards Iran will be.

From the EU perspective, Trump's resiling from JCAP and the sanctions put Europe in a difficult position. The EU has invented a new payment system called INSTEX (The Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges) in order to continue its trade with Iran after the sanctions. In response to this, Trump treated the EU with sanctions if they try to break them. Nevertheless, the EU had gone its own way, and relations with the U.S. were stayed strained during this time. When the election results were announced, European Council President Charles Michel called Biden to congratulate him and invited him to a “special meeting” in 2021 with EU heads to rebuild “a strong Trans-Atlantic alliance.” When all these data are considered, it is evident that Trans-Atlantic values are prominent in the Biden government. Besides, it can be said that the Biden administration is a government, unlike the Trump administration, that defends not just the interests of Israel but the interests of the global trade network and alliance relations.

On the Israeli side, there are deep concerns. The right-wing in Israel described Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal as the Netanyahu government's most tremendous success. When it became clear that Biden had won the elections, Israeli newspapers filled with articles warning the Netanyahu government to be careful about Biden's effort of reviving the JCAP. In short, Israel does not trust Iran’s government and its undertakings, and they claim on all occasions that they have some intelligence reports which support their own statements. However, it seems that American Jews do not share the same concerns with Israel, since almost 80% of the Jews in America voted for Biden instead of Trump, who supports Israel unconditionally.

In conclusion, unlike Trump’s foreign policy, most probably Biden will follow a path that protects the Trans-Atlantic values and European allies’ interests. There is a lot of evidence and statement to show this. But will it be that easy? Doubtable. Trump’s political moves damaged the Iranian reformists’ political position in Iran, and there will be an election soon. There are only six months between Biden’s inauguration to the Iranian election. The rules of the game may change if someone as conservative as Hossein Dehghan, one of the commanders of IRGC who is infamous harsh commentaries, comes to power in Iran. But it is also obvious that Biden and his team are determined to fix things up and return to the negotiation table. Iran has already announced that the new conditions or agreement are not acceptable. However, they may also have to make concessions for the sanctions to remain. The only thing to be sure is that there are keen obligations that force both Iran and the U.S. to sit at the negotiation table again.