Tehran Times Röportajı: Domestic politics affecting Washington’s foreign policy: Turkish expert

A Turkish expert in international relations says domestic struggle at home sig- nificantly affects Washington’s foreign policy. “I think that the dynamics of U.S. domestic politics have a more significant impact on U.S. foreign policy and regional policies than before, which does not affect U.S. interests well,” Oral Toga tells the Tehran Times. The Turkish expert also believes that U.S. pressure policy would have a unifying effect among people of the region. “There is an interesting aspect of the cul- ture of both Turkey and Iran. In these coun- tries, all kinds of external pressure cause a unifying effect among the people.” Toga believes that any policy of repression will yield the expected result in the Middle East (West Asia). “The pressure of the U.S. only causes other actors to find the opportunity and find a broader place on the stage. Operating diplomacy and finding a common way within the framework of mutual understanding will always yield more effective results.” Following is the text of the interview:

How do you evaluate U.S. pressure policy on West Asian countries, like Iran and Tur- key? Do you think it can be a successful in West Asia?

There is no monotype U.S. policy out there today. While Republicans have a political agenda, Democrats have an opposite agenda. Not just for the Middle East (West Asia) but also for Europe and Asia. The Democrats’ constructive policies towards Iran regarding the nuclear negotiations and the Republicans’ opposite policies are good examples. We can also see the same political divergence in Turkey-U.S. relations as well. Secondly, the Turkey-U.S. relationship does not have the same dynamics as the Iran-U.S. relationship. Therefore, although there are strong links, the policies of the U.S. should be evaluated separately instead of a single “Middle East Policy”.

What happened today between Turkey and the U.S. is not the first. Turkey has had various disagreements with the U.S. for 70 years. There were even days when the U.S. imposed harsh embargos on Turkey. But at the end of the day, Turkey and the U.S. are allied countries and both countries are among the most important components of NATO. Therefore, somehow common ground has always been found by the two countries. However, relations between Iran and the U.S. have had different dynamics since 1979. I think that the dynamics of U.S. domestic politics have a more significant impact on U.S. foreign policy and regional policies than before, which does not affect U.S. interests well. On the othehand, there is an interesting aspect of the culture of both Turkey and Iran. In these countries, all kinds of external pressure cause a unifying effect among the people. What happened during the Iran- Iraq war is a good example of this situation. I do not believe that any policy of repression will yield the expected result in the Middle East (West Asia). The pressure of the U.S. only causes other actors to find the opportunity and find a broader place on the stage. Operating diplomacy and finding a common way within the framework of mutual understanding will always yield more effective results.

Do you think there is a link between the crash of local currency in Iran and Lebanon to the fall of lira in Turkey? I think that the current situation in Turkey has quite different dynamics from the situation in Iran and Lebanon. However, if there is an attack behind the scenes, it is not possible for us to know.

Do you predict regional powers in West Asia, like Iran and Turkey, besides Russia will use domestic currencies in their trade to dodge U.S. sanctions and pressure policy? This is an issue that has come up occasionally for the past fifteen years. If I speak from Turkey’s point of view, Turkey’s biggest trading partners are Europeans. It’s the same for Iran too. Iran’s biggest trading partners are also the Europeans. In addition, another issue that should not be forgotten is that Turkey has not yet given up on its desire for EU membership and is still a NATO country. In the past ten years, Turkey has first faced severe attacks by ISIS and PKK. And also, millions of refugees came to Turkey. Afterward, it experienced a coup attempt and a state of emergency. Now it is fighting for its rights in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean. All these events increased Turkey’s security concerns. Today, a securitization understanding prevails in Turkey, and it causes a security paradox. For this reason, there are many disagreements and misunderstandings between Turkey and the West. However, it should not be forgotten that Turkey’s relations with the West did not start yesterday. I do not expect Turkey to leave NATO membership, EU candidacy and its biggest commercial partners with a sudden decision and chart a new path. There is still a strong group in Turkey that defends trans- Atlantic and European values. It is an undeniable fact that Russia and Iran are precious and important neighbors and commercial partners for Turkey. However, I don’t think the current situation will change in a short time.

Turkey witnessed protests against Erdogan’s policies in recent days. What are the repercussions of these protests in the country? Do you expect any change in Erdogan’s attitudes? Contrary to what is believed, violent mass protests did not occur in Turkey. There were protests by small groups in several places in Istanbul and Ankara. Of course, although the criticism has risen, a large part of the society still follows and tries to understand what is going on. Erdogan has a determined stance that he will continue today’s policies. He has said many times that he will not change his stance. So, I don’t expect any change either.

Do you think Iran and Turkey can alleviate the effects of U.S. pressure through developing their ties with China and Russia and maybe joining regional markets and blocs? These countries are already collaborating at the maximum level under current conditions. Even though there are many issues that Turkey cannot agree on with Russia, both countries maintain an active dialogue and good relations. I believe we have to wait for many more years to see how much influence China will have, Russia’s attitude towards this influence and Iran’s position. Then the picture will become much clearer.

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Bu röportaj ilk kez 26.12.2021 tarihinde Tehran Times'ta yayınlanmıştır.

Basılı nüsha linki: https://media.tehrantimes.com/d/t/2021/12/25/0/4001172.pdf