Iran's Approach to the Development Road Project
- Oral Toğa
- Jul 1, 2024
- 4 min read
The Development Road Project between Turkey and Iraq offers significant economic opportunities for both these countries and the region. As known, the project aims to create a crucial economic corridor with rail and road connections across a wide geography extending from the Persian Gulf to Europe. For Turkey, this project not only supports the country's strategy to become an energy hub but also positions it as a key player in global energy security. For Iraq, it means a substantial boost in the trade and energy sectors and gaining a critical role in regional geopolitics.
The fast transportation capability provided by the Development Road Project will lead to an increase in trade volume. Shipments traditionally made via sea routes like the Cape of Good Hope or the Red Sea will become faster and safer with the Development Road. Upon completion of the project, the time required for existing transport mechanisms will significantly decrease, providing great advantages for both Turkey and Iraq. This project, strengthened by Turkey's new rail and road investments, will establish an important trade and energy connection between Europe and Asia, while also making Iraq a new attraction for investments from the Asia-Pacific region.
For Iran, the importance of Iraq is a well-established fact. There are deeply rooted relationships between the two countries due to historical, cultural, religious, political, and economic reasons. Moreover, Iran's influence over Iraq and its relations with various groups within the country are at a high level. Therefore, although Turkey's increasing influence in Iraq might initially seem like a threat to Iran, there are other dimensions to the matter. It should first be noted that there has been no official statement from the authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the project, either positive or negative. On the other hand, this silence can be interpreted as Iran not being directly opposed to the project. For instance, Iranian officials had voiced strong opposition to the Zangezur corridor, a strategic initiative proposed after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. However, no significant reaction has been observed from Iran regarding the Development Road Project.
While the Development Road may initially seem like a project bypassing Iran, this is not the case. Some analysts believe that Turkey and Iran will clash over this project in Iraq, but Iran is likely to support it. The Development Road, being as important to Iran as it is to Turkey and Iraq, holds several benefits for Iran. Firstly, this strategically significant project is expected to contribute significantly to the re-establishment of stability in Iraq by increasing integration among groups within the country based on mutual interests. Hence, the stabilization of Iraq will eliminate certain security threats for all regional countries. Both Turkey and Iran have long emphasized the importance of Iraq's transformation into a secure and stable country.
It is also important to remember that Iran holds a significant strategic asset for this project: the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will likely be pleased to see trade with Europe shift towards its coasts via the Red Sea and Suez route, which has become increasingly unstable due to activities by the Houthis and other piracy activities. This would give Iran indirect control over one of the world's most important energy and trade routes, thereby enhancing its strategic importance. Notably, it was only a few months ago that Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri of the IRGC Navy stated that they control the Strait of Hormuz as if holding the mouth of a bag. Periodic threats by Iran to close the strait are also noteworthy.
Another point is that the Development Road will bring activity to cities significant for Shia, like Najaf and Karbala, and will benefit Shia groups in Iraq, many of which have close ties with Iran. It is unlikely that Iran, driven by purely ideological motives, would oppose a project that would bring such activity and economic momentum, as this could harm its relationships with these groups in the medium to long term. On the other hand, if a contrary situation arises, Iran has the capacity to oppose, slow down, or halt the project through the groups it is affiliated with, highlighting another aspect of its comfort zone. However, Turkey's effective diplomatic moves and the coordinated diplomatic relations conducted on many issues with Iran currently reduce the likelihood of such activities.
As Iran pursues the North-South Transport Corridor project, the possibility of viewing the Development Road as a rival project is another question that arises. The answer to this requires thorough consideration and support with numbers. Considering the strategic importance the region will gain with the economic development mentioned above, it is clear that the Development Road offers numerous benefits for Iran. Iran is more likely to see this project as complementary to the Transport Corridor rather than as an alternative. If the current conjuncture remains unchanged, or the Development Road Project does not become a matter of domestic policy within Iran, there will likely be no change in Iran's current stance.
This article was first published in Sabah newspaper on 27.04.2024.
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